ARV + INVESTOR ANALYSIS

4168 Carney Ct

Riverside, CA 92507 · 92507 ZIP
Prepared March 4, 2026 · Q1 2026
✓ LIVE MLS DATA · Trestle API + Redfin + AI Research
AI After Repair Value
$685,000
Medium Confidence
$718K
Redfin Est.
$278
Est $/sqft
11,761
Lot sqft
🏠Property Details
Year Built
1960
64-year-old build
Square Footage
2,470 sqft
Bedrooms
6
Above market avg
Bathrooms
3
Lot Size
11,761 sqft
0.27 acres
Last Sale
$481,600
Jan 2019 · +42% since
📊Valuation Sources
Redfin Estimate (as-is)
$718,154
AI ARV (post-renovation)
$685,000
Consensus ARV
$685,000
Teardown candidate?
No — renovation candidate
AI Reasoning
1960-built SFR, 21% structure-to-lot coverage — renovation candidate (not teardown). Anchored Redfin's $718K downward to align with Riverside SFH medians of $665K–$690K and Zillow's $635K typical value. Adjusted upward for 6 beds/3 baths and 2,470 sqft. Market forecasting 2–4% appreciation in 2026. ARV triangulated near upper market range with slight discount for age and condition.
📈Riverside Market — Q1 2026
City Median Sale Price
$640,000
SFH Median Range
$665K – $690K
Avg Days on Market
60 days ↑ from 54
YoY Price Change
−1.1% (flat)
2026 Appreciation Forecast
+2–4%
Avg Rent (city-wide)
$2,239/mo
💰Investor Scenarios
🔨 Fix & Flip
$22K – $92K
Net profit range
ARV (conservative)$685,000
Target Purchase$480K – $530K
Rehab (MLS estimate @ $70/sqft)$172,900
Holding & Closing (~6 mo)~$35,000
Net Profit$22K – $92K
🏦 Buy & Hold / BRRRR
6–9% yield
Gross @ $530K purchase
Est. Rent — Single Family$3,200 – $3,800/mo
Est. Rent — ADU / Split$4,500+/mo
Gross Annual (conservative)$38,400/yr
Gross Yield @ $530K~7.2%
🏡 House Hack / Multi-Gen
Strong
Rare 6-bed footprint
Owner occupies 3 beds, rents 3 beds~$1,800/mo offset
UCR proximity supports student demandLow vacancy risk
🎓Nearby Schools
Highland Elementary
K–6 · Riverside USD
D
University Heights Middle
7–8 · Riverside USD
C
John W. North High
9–12 · Riverside USD
C
⚠️ Below-average schools — limits family buyer pool, not an investor concern
⚠️Risk Assessment
1960 Build — Major Rehab Budget RequiredMLS scanner estimates $172,900 rehab ($70/sqft). Expect dated systems — electrical, plumbing, HVAC. Inspect before offering.
Flip Margins Thin at Market PriceAt $685K ARV, acquisition must be under $530K to clear meaningful profit after $172K rehab + carry costs.
60-Day DOM — Negotiate HardSlower market means seller has less leverage. Don't pay list. Aim 8–12% below asking.
UCR Proximity — Rental UpsideUC Riverside nearby creates consistent student/staff rental demand. Strong hold play if margins are tight on flip.
Bottom Line
Viable deal — but margins are tighter than the as-is Redfin estimate suggests. The real ARV post-rehab is ~$685K, with $172K in rehab baked in. Must acquire under $530K for a flip to work. Better as a hold or house-hack given the 6-bed footprint and UCR proximity. Don't pay anything near Redfin's $718K as-is value.
< $480KIdeal flip
< $530KHold / BRRRR
$685KAI ARV
Data sourced from Trestle MLS API (Cotality), Redfin, RapidAPI/Zillow, and AI research. Not a licensed appraisal or financial advice. Verify all figures with a licensed real estate professional before any investment decision.
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